Zespri sees even sweeter kiwifruit future 新西蘭佳沛預(yù)計(jì)未來獼猴桃市場(chǎng)樂觀

Zespri sees even sweeter kiwifruit future 新西蘭佳沛預(yù)計(jì)未來獼猴桃市場(chǎng)樂觀

▲A picture of pollinating kiwi fruit

Zespri’s five-year outlook report presents upbeat prospects for the sector through to the end of the decade, albeit with some cautions around a volatile global environment and continuing challenges of illegal plantings in China.

The report notes that Zespri continues to experience a level of demand for SunGold fruit running ahead of supply and remains positive about consumers’ preparedness to pay a premium for the branded fruit.

Zespri的五年展望報(bào)告為該行業(yè)提供了到本十年末的樂觀前景，盡管對(duì)動(dòng)蕩的全球環(huán)境和中國非法種植的持續(xù)挑戰(zhàn)持謹(jǐn)慎態(tài)度。
該報(bào)告指出，Zespri繼續(xù)經(jīng)歷對(duì)SunGold水果的需求超過供應(yīng)的水平，并對(duì)消費(fèi)者愿意為品牌水果支付溢價(jià)持積極態(tài)度。

▲充分授粉的紅心獼猴桃

Zespri kiwifruit fall into the “top 3” fruit choices in 10 out of 15 markets, with demand outrunning supply on both locally grown and globally sourced Zespri-branded fruit.

SunGold is expected to remain the main driver of demand, with supply increasing from 130 million trays this year to 153 million by 2030. The report also picks ongoing strength for the traditional Green fruit based off its health and nutritional attributes.

Zespri獼猴桃在15個(gè)市場(chǎng)中的10個(gè)市場(chǎng)中躋身“前三”水果選擇之列，當(dāng)?shù)胤N植和全球采購的Zespri品牌水果的需求都超過了供應(yīng)。
預(yù)計(jì)SunGold仍將是需求的主要驅(qū)動(dòng)力，供應(yīng)量將從今年的1.3億托盤增加到2030年的1.53億托盤。該報(bào)告還根據(jù)其健康和營養(yǎng)特性，為傳統(tǒng)的綠色水果挑選了持續(xù)的優(yōu)勢(shì)。

▲Sungolen kiwifruit harvest

However, Green volumes are anticipated to fall from about 60 million trays this year to 50 million by 2030 as growers convert to other varieties.

That reduction is expected to keep some tension in Green returns, with value per tray anticipated to rise by 28% between now and 2030 to $9 a tray.

然而，隨著種植者轉(zhuǎn)向其他品種，預(yù)計(jì)到2030年，綠色產(chǎn)量將從今年的約6000萬托盤下降到5000萬托盤。
預(yù)計(jì)這一減少將使Green的回報(bào)保持一定的緊張狀態(tài)，從現(xiàn)在到2030年，每個(gè)托盤的價(jià)值預(yù)計(jì)將增長28%，達(dá)到每個(gè)托盤9美元。

▲Sungolen kiwifruit harvest

SunGold is expected to lift by 19% to $12.50 a tray and RubyRed by a massive 32% to $16.50 a tray.

But despite the optimistic outlook, the report does not shy away from the pressing issue of illegally grown Chinese SunGold fruit, known as UAG3 plantings.

預(yù)計(jì)SunGold將上漲19%，至每桶12.50美元，RubyRed將大幅上漲32%，至每桶16.50美元。
盡管前景樂觀，但該報(bào)告并不回避非法種植的中國SunGold水果（即UAG3種植）這一緊迫問題。

▲Golden kiwifruit harvest

The unauthorised plantings have grown to cover an estimated 8387 hectares, producing about 40 million trays. That area almost eclipses New Zealand’s SunGold area of about 8900ha.

Of the 40 million trays, Zespri estimates 20 million are equivalent to its premium Class 1 fruit in quality.

未經(jīng)授權(quán)的種植面積估計(jì)已達(dá)8387公頃，生產(chǎn)了約4000萬個(gè)托盤。該地區(qū)幾乎超過了新西蘭約8900公頃的SunGold地區(qū)。
Zespri估計(jì)，在4000萬個(gè)托盤中，有2000萬個(gè)托盤的質(zhì)量相當(dāng)于其優(yōu)質(zhì)的1級(jí)水果。

▲Golden kiwifruit harvest

The fruit is being sold under competing brands in China at 60-70% of the Zespri value. Some is also sold as counterfeit Zespri-branded product, the most lucrative outlet for it.

It has not proven possible to pull these plantings out but Zespri has been pursuing legal channels to curb the growth in additional plantings, including prosecuting three people selling $700,000 worth of fruit.

這種水果在中國以Zespri價(jià)值的60-70%的價(jià)格在競(jìng)爭(zhēng)品牌下銷售。有些還作為假冒的Zespri品牌產(chǎn)品出售，這是最賺錢的銷售渠道。
事實(shí)證明，將這些種植園拔出是不可能的，但Zespri一直在尋求法律渠道來遏制額外種植園的增長，包括起訴三名出售價(jià)值70萬美元水果的人。

▲Kiwi pollen pollination

They received a NZ$125,000 fine and three months’ jail time.

Increased competition, illegal or otherwise, is cited as a key challenge globally, with larger volumes of all coloured fruit entering the market particularly during the northern hemisphere supply window, filling demand in NZ’s off season.

他們被處以12.5萬新西蘭元的罰款和三個(gè)月的監(jiān)禁。
競(jìng)爭(zhēng)加劇，無論是非法的還是其他的，都被認(rèn)為是全球面臨的一個(gè)關(guān)鍵挑戰(zhàn)，大量有色水果進(jìn)入市場(chǎng)，特別是在北半球供應(yīng)窗口期間，滿足了新西蘭淡季的需求。

▲RubyRed kiwifruit harvest

The major opportunities identified in the report hark to the spinoff benefits of growing middle classes within populations globally. With that comes rising wealth and rising average ages, with people over 60 tending to consume more fruit.

The lingering effect of the covid pandemic has also delivered an upside, with a marked increase in awareness of mental health, self-care and nutrition.

報(bào)告中確定的主要機(jī)遇是全球人口中中產(chǎn)階級(jí)不斷壯大的附帶利益。隨之而來的是財(cái)富的增加和平均年齡的上升，60歲以上的人傾向于消費(fèi)更多的水果。
新冠肺炎疫情的持續(xù)影響也帶來了好處，人們對(duì)心理健康、自我保健和營養(yǎng)的認(rèn)識(shí)顯著提高。

▲Sungolen kiwifruit harvest

Fresh fruit consumption in Zespri’s core markets is also expected to grow at a rate of 2% a year between now and 2030, and significant headroom exists for Zespri to push further into household fruit consumption.

Estimates are Zespri has less than 30% global household penetration, meaning less than a third of households consume a Zespri fruit once a year at least.

從現(xiàn)在到2030年，Zespri核心市場(chǎng)的新鮮水果消費(fèi)量預(yù)計(jì)也將以每年2%的速度增長，Zespre進(jìn)一步進(jìn)軍家庭水果消費(fèi)市場(chǎng)的空間很大。
據(jù)估計(jì)，Zespri在全球家庭中的滲透率不到30%，這意味著不到三分之一的家庭每年至少食用一次Zespri水果。

▲Golden kiwifruit after artificial pollination

From a supply perspective, Zespri intends to release a further 400ha of SunGold licences next year, 400ha the year after and then 350-500ha between 2027 and 2029.

Meantime plans to expand its current 5000ha of northern hemisphere fruit supply will be dependent upon the grower vote, due to close on December 5.

從供應(yīng)角度來看，Zespri計(jì)劃明年再發(fā)放400公頃的SunGold許可證，后年發(fā)放400公頃，2027年至2029年發(fā)放350-500公頃。
與此同時(shí)，擴(kuò)大目前北半球5000公頃水果供應(yīng)的計(jì)劃將取決于種植者的投票，投票將于12月5日結(jié)束。

▲Red heart kiwifruit orchard in Sichuan Province, China

Latest released figures show the RubyRed variety still only account for 1.5 million trays but this is expected to grow to almost 8 million by 2030.

However, Zespri acknowledges the fruit’s continuing small size is a consumer concern, something that could have a long-term detrimental effect upon the brand variety.

最新發(fā)布的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，RubyRed品種仍然只占150萬個(gè)托盤，但預(yù)計(jì)到2030年將增長到近800萬個(gè)托盤。
然而，Zespri承認(rèn)，這種水果持續(xù)的小尺寸是消費(fèi)者關(guān)注的問題，這可能會(huì)對(duì)品牌品種產(chǎn)生長期的不利影響。

▲使用鋰電池的獼猴桃電動(dòng)授粉機(jī)